Result of ServiceThe ultimate goal of the Budget Stress Testing project in Lao PDR is to provide an analysis of the country's fiscal resilience to disaster and economic risks, with a focus on facilitating that Lao PDR’s transition from LDC status in 2026 is supported by robust fiscal policies. By incorporating scenario and sensitivity analysis of preventive investments and disaster risk financing mechanisms, along with a strong emphasis on disaster risk management, the project aims to strengthen the fiscal sustainability of Lao PDR, enhance informed decision-making, and support local capacity for continuous monitoring and management of fiscal risks. Additionally, it will assist sustained resilience budgeting for DRR at both national and local levels, supporting alignment with sustainable development goals and post-graduation economic stability. Work LocationHomebase Expected duration3 Feb-3 Oct 2025 Duties and ResponsibilitiesCreated in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to reduce disasters and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations and regional organizations and activities in both developed and less developed countries. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG), UNDRR has over 150 staff located in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional offices. Specifically, UNDRR guides, monitors, analyses and reports on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, supports regional and national implementation of the Framework and catalyzes action and increases global awareness to reduce disaster risk working with UN Member States and a broad range of partners and stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, parliamentarians and the science and technology community. Lao PDR has exhibited notable economic strengths, particularly in sectors such as tourism, transport, logistics, and energy, largely fueled by investments in hydropower and mining. These sectors continue to drive positive economic activity, with the country's GDP expected to grow by 4% in 2024. However, this growth is tempered by several challenges. High inflation, which averaged 31% in 2023, and a depreciating currency have significantly affected household consumption and public spending. Additionally, substantial external debt constrains the government's fiscal space, limiting its ability to respond effectively to economic shocks. Adding to these economic pressures are the substantial risks posed by disasters such as floods, droughts, and landslides, which threaten both the country’s economic and fiscal stability. These disasters cause direct damage to crucial sectors like infrastructure and agriculture, which are essential for maintaining economic balance. Indirect economic impacts, such as disruptions to tourism and declines in productivity, further compound the existing economic challenges. The fiscal implications of these disasters are severe. Increased spending on emergency response and recovery can strain an already limited budget, leading to deficits or forcing reallocation of funds from critical development projects. Lao PDR’s high debt levels further diminish the government’s ability to manage such fiscal pressures, risking long-term economic instability. The Budget Stress Testing exercise offers an approach to addressing these challenges. It will evaluate the benefits of preventive investments, such as infrastructure improvements and early warning systems, which play a critical role in reducing disaster risks. These investments help reduce the potential damage and the associated costs of disasters, ensuring fiscal resilience. Additionally, the stress test will examine the role of disaster risk financing instruments, such as insurance and contingency funds, which provide a financial buffer during emergencies and help minimize economic and fiscal disruptions. By aligning with the Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF), which supports the SDGs, and incorporating Disaster Risk Management (DRM) principles, the budget stress test will provide strategic insights into how Lao PDR can enhance its fiscal resilience. The test will demonstrate how preventive investments and disaster risk financing instruments help maintain fiscal stability. Furthermore, through budget tagging and tracking mechanisms, the test will assist in monitoring DRR investments and evaluating their impact, ensuring that resources are efficiently allocated, even in the face of disaster and economic shocks, while supporting Lao PDR’s progress toward sustainable development goals (SDGs). In this regard, budget stress testing will guide Lao PDR in strengthening its fiscal and economic frameworks, supporting that the country is better prepared to handle both fiscal and disaster-related risks, particularly as it approaches its transition from LDC status. The consultant will be home based and work under day-to-day guidance under the supervision of the Economic Affairs Officer of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (UNDRR ROAP). However, when necessary, the consultant will visit Lao PDR to collect data, participate as a speaker and trainer in capacity development and stakeholder meetings, and discuss the project's outcomes with the Ministry of Finance and other relevant ministries. The consultant will undertake the following tasks: 1. Scenario Development: - Develop disaster and economic stress scenarios specific to the Lao People's Democratic Republic, including potential events such as major floods, droughts, or economic downturns, by considering the resilience of infrastructure investments, preventive investments, and risk financing tools. - Incorporate historical data on disaster impacts, current economic conditions, and fiscal policies into the scenario development process. 2. Economic and Fiscal Modeling: - Implement macroeconomic models and regressions to simulate the impact of the developed scenarios on the selected or all items of national budget. - Forecast and analyze selected or all items of the national budget, as well as key economic indicators such as GDP growth and inflation, under these scenarios over a five-year period or within an appropriate time frame. - Assess the potential implications of disaster risks on debt sustainability and fiscal buffers. - This analysis will also consider the implications of Lao PDR's upcoming graduation from LDC status in 2026, seeking to align preventive investments and disaster risk financing mechanisms with the country's post-graduation economic realities. 3. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: - Identify and quantify the fiscal risks associated with different disaster scenarios, considering both direct and indirect economic impacts. - Evaluate the effectiveness of existing preventive investments and disaster risk financing instruments and recommend strategies for enhancing fiscal resilience and supporting sustainable development objectives. 4. Resource Allocation and Policy Recommendations: - Provide recommendations on resource allocation to reduce identified fiscal and disaster risks effectively, supporting that resources from the national budget or disaster funds are distributed in the most efficient and impactful way, taking into account the allocation of resources to subnational authorities. - Provide recommendations on resource allocation strategies that not only reduce fiscal risks but also align with Lao PDR's post-graduation economic framework, supporting that the country remains resilient and continues to progress after exiting LDC status. - Suggest policy adjustments to improve preventive investment policies, disaster risk management and fiscal stability. - Develop policy recommendations for integrating disaster risk reduction considerations into national budgetary planning. 5. Stakeholder Engagement and Capacity Building: - Collaborate with the Ministry of Finance and other relevant stakeholders, including the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare (MoLSW) and the Ministry of Planning and Investment to ensure alignment with national priorities, and promote coordinated efforts. o Conduct training sessions for Ministry of Finance staff on budget stress testing methodologies and tools. o Facilitate stakeholder meetings to review and validate the stress testing results, ensuring that sustainable development considerations are included. o Incorporate a review of existing relevant analyses from the Asian Development Bank, World Bank, IMF, UNDP, and other international organizations. This review will help prevent duplication of efforts and ensure that the work builds on existing frameworks developed by these institutions in the field of budget stress testing. 6. Reporting and Documentation: o Prepare report detailing the findings of the stress tests, including actionable recommendations. o Provide recommendations on how to incorporate the report results into the fiscal planning processes with an emphasis on sustainable development. o Provide recommendations on how to incorporate the report results into the INFF process of Lao PDR Qualifications/special skillsAdvanced university degree in Data Engineering, Data Science, Statistics, Economics or a related field is required. A first-level university degree in combination with a minimum of two additional years of qualifying experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. • A minimum of ten years of relevant experience in predictive models, macroeconomic models, regressions, time series analysis, development of extreme event scenarios and analysis, statistics is required. • Work experience in preparing a macroeconomic model for a country is required. • Coding experience in Python, R, Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB), Dynare Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), Structured query language (SQL), Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML), Cascading Style Sheet (CSS), Java, Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) is required. • Work experience with national government and/or international organizations is desirable. LanguagesFluency of English is required. Additional InformationDue to the high volume of applications received, only successful candidates will be contacted. No FeeTHE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.