Result of ServiceQuantification of the feasible losses because eruptions in Volcan de Fuego in at least five (5) municipalities in terms of probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, average annual loss, and return-period specific losses. Also, setting the bases for impact-based forecasts early warning systems in Guatemala for Volcan de Fuego. Work LocationHome-based Expected duration15.08.25 al 15.03.26 Duties and ResponsibilitiesCreated in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to reduce disasters and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations and regional organizations and activities in both developed and less developed countries. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG/ASG), UNDRR has over 150 staff located in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional offices. UNDRR guides, monitors, analyses, and reports on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. It supports regional and national implementation of the Framework and catalyzes action and increases global awareness to reduce disaster risk working with UN Member States and a broad range of partners and stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, parliamentarians and the science and technology community. In November 2022, the UN Secretary-General launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative to advance efforts to protect everyone in the world by the end-to-end Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS). UNDRR, together with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), leads the global coordination of the EW4ALL in close collaboration with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). This initiative aims to ensure that all people everywhere are protected by early warning systems by 2027. As per the United Nations Secretary-General's Executive Action Plan, EW4ALL is based upon the following four pillars: Pillar 1: Disaster Risk Knowledge and Risk Management (led by UNDRR), Pillar 2: Detection, Observations, Monitoring, Analysis, and Forecasting of Hazards (led by WMO), Pillar 3: Warning Dissemination and Communication (led by ITU), and Pillar 4: Preparedness to Respond (led by IFRC). This consultancy will allow advancing in the implementation of the EW4All roadmap for Guatemala, by increasing risk knowledge for one of prioritized hazards in the country, and considering that Volcan de Fuego is one of the nine volcanos in Guatemala classified as with very high and high hazard. Through the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) regional project Scaling up the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction through disaster preparedness, risk knowledge, strategic coordination and key partnership engagement support, UNDRR provides technical support at national, subregional and regional level to countries to support the implementation of the Sendai Framework and the coordination of Disaster Preparedness (DP) actions. This project began in 2023 and after undergoing extensions has a current finalization date of 31 March 2026. The Action focuses on the following 2 expected results: 1) Disaster preparedness knowledge and learning systematized and promoted between relevant stakeholders in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) through the collection of best practices, lessons learnt and common challenges; and 2) Strengthen coordination and disaster risk knowledge for enhanced disaster preparedness and response at the national, subregional, and regional level. Specifically, through this consultancy the ECHO regional project will support advancing the implementation of EW4All in Guatemala by strengthening the capabilities to generate warnings based on impact-based forecasts (IBF). The main activities to achieve these results include technical assistance, capacity-building, risk knowledge, multi actor coordination, strategic communication, and political advocacy to boost concrete results. The activities also include a gender, age and disability approach as identified in the Sendai Framework and as reflected in UNDRR's Work Programme but also in accordance with the United Nations and European Union (EU) mandates and values. Probabilistic Volcanic Risk Assessment (PVRA) is a valuable approach to quantify the likelihood of hazardous volcanic phenomena (e.g., ashfall, lava flows, pyroclastic density currents) and estimate their potential impacts on exposed populations and assets. By integrating geological records, eruption scenarios, monitoring data, and statistical modeling, PVRA enables estimation of probabilities for different magnitudes and frequencies of eruptions from active volcanoes. These assessments provide decision-makers with risk metrics and maps (e.g., annual probability of exceeding critical ashfall thresholds) that support the development of early warning systems, improved land-use planning, infrastructure design, and emergency preparedness, ultimately shifting the focus from reactive response to proactive risk reduction. Impact-based forecasts complement PVRA by translating volcanic activity monitoring and forecast products into expected consequences for people, infrastructure, and livelihoods. In Guatemala, this means not only predicting ash plume trajectories or eruption likelihoods but also providing actionable information on expected disruptions to aviation, road closures, health hazards from ash inhalation, and evacuations. By linking scientific forecasts with vulnerability and exposure data, impact-based forecasts enable authorities and communities to better understand what a specific volcanic scenario means for them and to take timely, targeted measures to mitigate losses. Together, PVRA and impact-based forecasting form an integrated risk management approach that strengthens Guatemala’s capacity to protect lives and assets in the face of frequent and potentially devastating volcanic hazards. In this regard, the selected candidate will focus on supporting progress on pillar 1 as defined through the implementation plan for EW4All in Guatemala. The consultant will be home-based and will be under the supervision of the Risk Knowledge Officer of the the United Nations Officer for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Regional Office of the Americas and the Caribbean (UNDRR ROAC). Works Assignment - Review the historical data on eruptive processes of Volcan de Fuego that have generated pyroclastic density currents (pyroclastic flows and surges), mudflows, volcanic debris flows (lahars), and tephra fall (wind-transported tephra and ballistic projectiles), identifying affected areas and dates of occurrence. - Develop a probabilistic hazard model for a selected volcanic product (to be agreed with UNDRR and CONRED) using a set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events to serve as input for a probabilistic risk assessment. Each event must include the geographic distribution of an intensity parameter that enables damage estimation to exposed elements using physical vulnerability functions and must be assigned an annual frequency of occurrence. - Based on existing information, review and refine the characterization of exposed elements for buildings in five (5) municipalities (to be defined with UNDRR and CONRED). The exposure model must include, at a minimum, the geographic coordinates of each element, its exposed value (in terms of replacement cost), and the features necessary to appropriately assess its physical vulnerability to the selected volcanic product used in the hazard modeling. - Using available studies, assign physical vulnerability functions to the elements included in the exposure model using functions that relate the expected damage level to the intensity measures estimated in the hazard model. Vulnerability functions may be derived through analytical methods or sourced from published literature, provided their applicability is adequately justified based on the characteristics of the exposed elements. - Conduct the probabilistic volcanic risk assessment for the selected product and present, for each municipality, the results of direct losses in terms of at least the loss exceedance curve and the expected annual loss. - Provide guidance for the use of the exposure and vulnerability models in impact-based forecasts that can inform early warning systems in Guatemala. This must also include a description of how from variables related to the hazard that can be monitored and forecasted, hazard footprints for the selected volcanic product can be generated. Qualifications/special skillsAdvanced university degree (master's degree or equivalent) in civil engineering, climate change, disaster risk management, or a related discipline is required. A first level university degree in combination with two additional years of qualifying work experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. At least ten (10) years of experience in probabilistic risk assessment, early warning systems, impact-based forecasts, and/or disaster prevention is required. Experience with hazards analyses and mapping, exposure characterization, vulnerability analysis and hazard forecasting, and monitoring, is required. Experience with information management systems, including GIS, and with hazard assessment and mapping is desired. Experience with at least one major government institution or international organization working on risk assessments, early warning/early action, disaster risk reduction/risk knowledge is desirable. LanguagesEnglish and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat. Fluency in Spanish is required for this consultancy. Knowledge of English is desirable. Additional InformationDue to the high volume of applications received, only successful candidates will be contacted. *FEMALE CANDIDATES ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO APPLY*. UNDRR values diversity among its staff. We welcome applications from qualified women, men, and people with disabilities. No FeeTHE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.