Back Data Scientist Consultant for Innovative Epidemics Modelling, Brasília, Brazil

BACKGROUND & RATIONALE

A considerable number of Brazilian population is affected by the spread of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya, all spread by the same mosquito. In 2016, more than 1.5 million cases of Dengue were reported.

In this context, UNICEF Brazil will pilot and further develop a solution to link real-time data on human spatial mobility between cities in Brazil to epidemiological modeling. Using real-time data, acquired through a partnership with a telecom provider, UNICEF Brazil will model the spread of the disease and focus timely interventions in the main geographic nodes of dispersion. The model and platform development is being conducted in partnership with the University of Notre Dame (ND).

The project has two stages: First, incorporating spatial mobility data into a simulation model of dengue virus transmission to reproduce the latest epidemic curve, and eventually generate real-time forecasts for Brazil. Second, developing a simulation model of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission that enable prediction of future epidemics by accounting for possible interactions among these co-circulating viruses. Using data for the diseases, with environmental and mobility data, the team will fit a model capable of reproducing past epidemics. The interactions among these viruses could have an impact on which virus might be dominant in each season.

PURPOSE

This consultancy will work with UNICEF M&E Team in Brasilia and the team of researchers from the university of Notre Dame and the UNICEF HQ-Innovation Office. The main goal is to assist the development of the model with concurrent capacity building in modelling and data analysis of UNICEF Brazil team. This will include code development, model research, data cleaning, presentation of findings and liaison with governmental authorities on the subject matters. Other activities may include quantitative data analysis and statistics production. The consultant is expected to work remotely, with two reporting meetings per month and biweekly meetings with the development team, consisting of ND researchers and UNICEF staff, via Skype. The capacity building activities are expected to be conducted in person at UNICEF Brasilia. The consultant is expected to allocate around 10 hours a week for the activities.

EXPECTED RESULTS

The expected results of this consultancy are:

Analysis of proposed models; Capacity building activities and workshops; Final report with presentations of model and tools developed and details for possible future usage of the model developed.

DELIVERABLES

1) Initial desk review containing:

Literature review on the topic Analysis of development tools available for the project Initial analysis of the proposed models

Deadline: 1 month after start of contract

Payment (% of the contract): 10%

2 to 4) Reports on development of the consultancy containing:

Summary of development of the models and tools, including systematization of methodologies and reporting on methodological decisions. Capacity building activities conducted.

Deadline: 3/5/7 months after start of contract

Payment (% of the contract): 10% each

5) Capacity building workshop:

One day workshop conducted in UNICEF Brasília with the following objectives:

Present the model and tools developed Build an understanding of the main usage of the tools Detail the possible future usage and roadmap of the research

Deadline: 9 months after start of contract

Payment (% of the contract): 20%

6) Draft final report containing the activities developed during the project.

Deadline: 10 months after start of contract

Payment (% of the contract): 10%

7) Final report, including summary of findings and description of the models and tools developed.

Deadline: 10 months after start of contract

Payment (% of the contract): 30%

One travel to Brasília for the capacity building workshop should be included in the consultancy fee. Other travels, if required, are not included in the monthly fee and will be costed by UNICEF when required and authorized by the supervisor.

Payment of professional fees will be based on submission of agreed deliverables. UNICEF reserves the right to withhold payment in case the deliverables submitted are not up to the required standard or in case of delays in submitting the deliverables on the part of the contractor.

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

Drive for results Ability to produce high quality analysis Ability to work in a team Ability to timely collect required data Ability to effectively communicate

BACKGOURND, EXPERIENCE AND COMPETENCIES

Required:

Advanced degree in data analysis, demography, statistics, epidemiology, health sciences, biomedicine, or a related field Minimum of 2 years of experience with quantitative and/or qualitative research, including research related to epidemics Experience with model development Proven writing and editing skills, and ability to convey complex ideas in a creative, clear and direct style Experience with data analysis software and computer languages, such as SPSS, R or STATA. Fluency in Portuguese and English

Desirable:

Specific experience with R programming would be considered an asset Capacity building experience Previous experience working with UN agencies

GENERAL CONDITIONS: PROCEDURES AND LOGISTICS

Expenses related to travels will not be covered by UNICEF and should be included in the Consultant’s fees. No contract may commence unless the contract is signed by both UNICEF and the Consultant Consultants will not have supervisory responsibilities or authority on UNICEF budget.

FINANCIAL PROPOSAL

Costs indicated are estimated. Final rate shall follow “best value for money” principle, i.e., achieving the desired outcome at the lowest possible fee. A financial proposal including the fee for the assignment based on the deliverables and number of days must be submitted. Consultants and individual contractors are asked to stipulate all-inclusive fees, including lump sum travel and subsistence costs, as applicable.

The payment will be based on submission of agreed deliverables. UNICEF reserves the right to withhold payment in case the deliverables submitted are not up to the required standard or in case of delays in submitting the deliverables on the part of the consultant.

RESTRICTIONS

In case of government officials, the contract cannot be issued without prior written clearance bythe Government​, or unlesson leave without pay.

UNICEF is committed to achieving workforce diversity in terms of gender, nationality and culture. Individuals from minority groups, indigenous groups and persons with disabilities are equally encouraged to apply. All applications will be treated with the strictest confidence.